What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts
File version
Version of Record (VoR)
Author(s)
Becker, Daniel J
Peel, Alison J
Garnier, Romain
Suu-Ire, Richard D
Gibson, Louise
Hayman, David TS
Wood, James LN
Cunningham, Andrew A
Plowright, Raina K
Restif, Olivier
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
Abstract
Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1-2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.
Journal Title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
374
Issue
1782
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
© 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Biological sciences
Biomedical and clinical sciences
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Biology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
disease dynamics
Persistent link to this record
Citation
Glennon, EE; Becker, DJ; Peel, AJ; Garnier, R; Suu-Ire, RD; Gibson, L; Hayman, DTS; Wood, JLN; Cunningham, AA; Plowright, RK; Restif, O, What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2019, 374 (1782)