Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?

No Thumbnail Available
File version
Author(s)
Lyocsa, Stefan
Molnar, Peter
Todorova, Neda
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2017
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract

This is the first comprehensive study on the forecasting of the realized volatility of non-ferrous metal futures. Based on 8.5 years of intraday data on copper, zinc, nickel, lead and aluminum, we explore a variety of extensions of the univariate heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model and seek to harness the economic linkages among these metals to improve forecasts. A simple approach that augments the models with shocks in other metals’ series appears to outperform more sophisticated specifications, which explicitly model covariances. The results suggest that the information inherent in the volatility series of aluminum is most useful in enhancing the accuracy of forecasts for other metals. While consistently outperforming the original HAR model with an individual model is difficult, combination forecasts, especially with univariate specifications or Bayesian model averaging, are found to conclusively outperform the benchmark.

Journal Title

Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

51

Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Investment and risk management

Social Sciences

Business, Finance

Economics

Business & Economics

Industrial metals

Persistent link to this record
Citation

Lyocsa, S; Molnar, P; Todorova, N, Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2017, 51, pp. 228-247

Collections