Objectives: Test the odds of factors previously associated with lower limb injury (decreased size of the multifidus (MF) and increased size of the quadratus lumborum (QL) muscle) in an independent sample of Australian Rules Football (ARF) players.

Design: Prospective cohort study.

Setting: Professional ARF. Participants: Forty-three male ARF players.

Main outcome measures: Cross-sectional areas (CSAs) of MF and QL muscles measured from pre-season ultrasound images. Playing season injuries were recorded by club personnel. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to evaluate the usefulness of MF and QL muscle size for predicting playing season lower limb injuries.

Results: Fifteen players (35%) sustained a playing season lower limb injury. The multivariable model indicated that the odds of sustaining a lower limb injury during the season was 2.38 (95% CI: 1.18, 5.00; P = 0.017) times less likely for a one cm2 increase from the mean value in MF muscle CSA at the L5 vertebral level after adjusting for CSA of the QL, age and BMI. The main effect and interaction models positively predicted 75% of players that sustained a lower limb injury during the season (sensitivity 80%, specificity 85%).

Conclusion: Future studies could examine the efficacy, feasibility and adherence of ‘at risk’ players to a pre-season training program aimed at increasing MF muscle size and monitor playing season injuries.