Ember risk modelling for improved wildfire risk management in the peri-urban fringes

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Roberts, Melanie E
Rawlinson, Andrew A
Wang, Ziyuan
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2021
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Abstract

Although embers are a leading cause of house loss and damage from wildfire, risk reduction activities such as vegetation management and planning requirements do not adequately account for the risk of embers. To help address this, a model of the potential ember risk is presented. It takes into account local vegetation and background wind conditions for both long-range and short-range ember dispersal. This model is developed to provide indications of the importance of embers to the household-level wildfire risk in communities at the wildland-urban interface. The model provides information for householders to improve understanding of the nature of ember risk within the community, and to assist planning in order to respond to that risk. A case study of the 2015 Warringine Park (Coastal Section) bushfire in Australia is presented, which demonstrates how the model could be used to assist with community planning. The utility of this outcome for community and household level wildfire planning and preparation is discussed.

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Environmental Modelling & Software

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© 2021 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited.

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This publication has been entered as an advanced online version in Griffith Research Online.

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Urban and regional planning

Applied mathematics

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Roberts, ME; Rawlinson, AA; Wang, Z, Ember risk modelling for improved wildfire risk management in the peri-urban fringes, Environmental Modelling & Software, 2021

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