A case study of consensus modelling for tracking oil spills

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Author(s)
King, Brian
Brushett, Ben
Lemckert, Charles
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Barbara A Burns, Clem Davis, Andrew E Kiss & John R Taylor

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2010
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Australian Natl Univ (ANU), Canberra, AUSTRALIA

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Abstract

Metocean forecast datasets are essential for the timely response to marine incidents and pollutant spill mitigation at sea. To effectively model the likely drift pattern and the area of impact for a marine spill, both wind and ocean current forecast datasets are required. There are two ocean current forecast models and two wind forecast models currently used operationally in the Australia and Asia Pacific region. The availability of several different forecast models provides a unique opportunity to compare the outcome of a particular modelling exercise with the outcome of another using a different model and determining whether there is consensus in the results. Two recent modelling exercises, the oil spill resulting from the damaged Pacific Adventurer (in Queensland) and the oil spill from the Montara well blowout (in Western Australia) are presented as case studies to examine consensus modelling.

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17TH NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANOGRAPHIC SOCIETY

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11

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© The Author(s) 2010. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. It is posted here with permission of the copyright owners for your personal use only. No further distribution permitted. For information about this paper please refer to the conference website or contact the authors.

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Physical oceanography

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