Prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone power and latitude of maximum intensity using climate indices

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
File version

Version of Record (VoR)

Author(s)
Miller, JG
da Silva, GV
Strauss, D
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2023
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) wind power, often highly destructive, can be quantified using the power dissipation index (PDI) and in this study, the PDIs for Coral Sea TC tracks, as well as the latitude of maximum intensity (LMI) were investigated for correlation with climatological indices. Multiple linear regression with collinearity removed and an overall Pearson correlation of 0.7 or above was used for this. The results for all tracks showed that three indices dominated for PDI: Niño 4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Coral Sea TC tracks were clustered by maximum windspeed-weighted locations were then examined: For cluster 1 (located more south-east), the additional influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) was apparent, whilst for cluster 2 (located more north-west), the same indices dominated as for the all-tracks model. For LMI, four indices were identified: the Indian Ocean East SST Anomaly (DMI E), the MJO, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the SAM. Only TCs clustered in the northeast of Australia had a valid model for LMI, with correlation 0.8, using three indices: DMI E, DMI and the SOI. Overall, raised Niño 4 SST combined with a negative DMI and low MJO amplitude were shown to predict large increases in TC power, whilst a combination of increasing DMI E temperature anomaly with a positive SOI moves LMI equator-wards. The models compiled in this study identified the most significant climatic indices and successfully predicted TC power dissipation and LMI.

Journal Title

Climate Dynamics

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement

© The Author(s) 2023, corrected publication 2023. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Item Access Status
Note

This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.

Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Atmospheric sciences

Climate change science

Oceanography

Persistent link to this record
Citation

Miller, JG; da Silva, GV; Strauss, D, Prediction of Coral Sea tropical cyclone power and latitude of maximum intensity using climate indices, Climate Dynamics, 2023

Collections