Marine governance to avoid tipping points: Can we adapt the adaptability envelope?

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Serrao-Neumann, Silvia
Davidson, Julie L
Baldwin, Claudia L
Dedekorkut-Howes, Aysin
Ellison, Joanna C
Holbrook, Neil J
Howes, Michael
Jacobson, Christine
Morgan, Edward A
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2016
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Abstract

Combined pressures from climate change, resources demand and environmental degradation could lead to the collapse of marine systems and increase the vulnerability of populations dependent on them. In this paper an adaptability envelope framework is applied to investigate how governance arrangements may be addressing changing conditions of marine social-ecological systems, particularly where thresholds might have been crossed. The analysis focuses on three Australian case studies that have been significantly impacted by variations or changes in weather and climate over the past decade. Findings indicate that, in some cases, global scale drivers are triggering tipping points, which challenge the potential success of existing governance arrangements at the local scale. Governance interventions to address tipping points have been predominantly reactive, despite existing scientific evidence indicating that thresholds are approaching and/or being crossed. It is argued that marine governance arrangements need to be framed so that they also anticipate increasing marine social-ecological system vulnerability, and therefore build appropriate adaptive capacity to buffer against potential tipping points.

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Marine Policy

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65

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© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits unrestricted, non-commercial use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, providing that the work is properly cited. You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work.

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Policy and administration

Land use and environmental planning

Political science

Environmental management

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