Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014

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Yu, Xue Qin
Dasgupta, Paramita
Kahn, Clare
Kou, Kou
Cramb, Susanna
Baade, Peter
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2021
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Abstract

Background: To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15–89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985–2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma. Results: Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher. Conclusion: Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.

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Cancer Medicine

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© 2021 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Biochemistry and cell biology

Oncology and carcinogenesis

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Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Oncology

cancer

competing risks

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Yu, XQ; Dasgupta, P; Kahn, C; Kou, K; Cramb, S; Baade, P, Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014, Cancer Medicine, 2021

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