Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

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Carmignani, Fabrizio
Laurenceson, James S
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2013
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Abstract

We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization

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Economics of Transition

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21

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2

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Applied economics

Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)

Banking, finance and investment

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