Synthesizing Empirical and Modelling Studies to Predict Past and Future Primary Production in the North Sea

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Spence, Michael A
Lynam, Christopher P
Thorpe, Robert B
Heneghan, Ryan F
Dolder, Paul J
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2022
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Abstract

Understanding change at the base of the marine foodwebs is fundamental to understanding how climate change can impact fisheries. However, there is a shortage of empirical measurements of primary productivity, and models estimates often disagree with each other by an order of magnitude or more. In this study we incorporate information from empirical studies and a suite of Earth system models statistically downscaled using an ensemble model to produce estimates of North Sea primary production with robust quantification of uncertainties under two different climate scenarios. The results give a synthesised estimate of primary production that can feed into regional fisheries models. We found that Earth system models describe the dynamics of primary production in the North Sea poorly, and therefore the effects of climate change on future primary production are uncertain. The methods demonstrated here can be applied to other geographical locations and are not limited in application to primary production.

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Frontiers in Marine Science
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9
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© 2022 Spence, Lynam, Thorpe, Heneghan and Dolder. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
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Biological oceanography
Fisheries sciences
Ecology
Geology
Oceanography
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Spence, MA; Lynam, CP; Thorpe, RB; Heneghan, RF; Dolder, PJ, Synthesizing Empirical and Modelling Studies to Predict Past and Future Primary Production in the North Sea, Frontiers in Marine Science, 2022, 9, pp. 828623
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