“Realignment”, “Dealignment”, or “Deviation”? Classifying the 2022 Australian Federal Election

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Williams, PD
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2024
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Abstract

The 2022 Australian federal election saw a record high vote for minor parties and independent candidates and record-low levels of voter identification with the major parties. Scholars have since described the 2022 election as both a “dealigning” and a “realigning” event. Such descriptions are useful commencement points but not definitive. In determining a more accurate classification, this article offers three arguments: first, that younger and female voters swung heavily against the Coalition indeed suggests a “dealigning” election, albeit merely the most recent in a long process of “dealignment”; second, that the election hinged disproportionately on the short-term factor of Prime Minister Scott Morrison's unpopular leadership suggests the poll was also a “deviating” event; and, third, it is impossible to classify the 2022 election as genuinely “realigning” until subsequent elections confirm the propensity of former Labor and Liberal Party voters to re-elect Greens and “Teal” candidates.

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Australian Journal of Politics and History
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Historical studies
Policy and administration
Political science
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Williams, PD, “Realignment”, “Dealignment”, or “Deviation”? Classifying the 2022 Australian Federal Election, Australian Journal of Politics and History, 2024
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