Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States
File version
Author(s)
Li, Bin
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract
Our study provides substantially robust evidence for the predictive power of financial variables in forecasting the business cycle at a further step. We select several interesting and representative financial variables and reveal that they can predict significant information regarding future equity premiums as well as future macroeconomic activity, which are proxied by comprehensive fresh macroeconomic variables. The predictive power remains stable in out-of-sample estimations and can generate profits in an active market-timing trading strategy in excess of the historical mean forecast strategy. Cochrane provides one of the core interpretations for such forecasts in the theoretical asset pricing framework.
Journal Title
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume
60
Issue
Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject
Macroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)
Banking, finance and investment
Applied economics
Persistent link to this record
Citation
Shi, Q; Li, B, Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2022, 60, pp. 101647