Leaving nothing to chance: Sustaining Pacific developments in 2024

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Naupa, Anna
Newton Cain, Theresa
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Nedopil, Christoph

Ge, Gloria

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2024
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Abstract

The value proposition of Pacific regionalism in an increasingly dynamic geopolitical environment must balance the agreed rhetoric of Blue Pacific stewardship that drives a regional ethos, with the realpolitik of governments looking at shorter-term timeframes potentially at the expense of these stated values of custodianship. Maintaining Pacific agency and regional resolve will become increasingly tested in 2024.

This paper explores Pacific island countries’ prospects in advancing sustainable development objectives in 2024. It considers what will be necessary to regain and sustain Pacific development gains while navigating a challenging economic and climate outlook amidst increasingly dynamic geopolitics.

As 2024 forecasts for the Pacific region accumulate, three themes dominate: economic prospects, the climate outlook, and geopolitical dynamics. The latter has absorbed considerable media analysis of Pacific political currents in recent years, notably a pre-occupation by the West with China’s Pacific islands relations. The persistent tension between an external framing of our region as the Indo-Pacific and our own framing of the Blue Pacific, will continue to shape the region’s strategic engagement on shared security1 and development aspirations under the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent.2 The strategy charts pathways for the region’s political and economic cooperation under ‘the Blue Pacific’ umbrella, to drive collective engagement of Forum member states to ensure strategically beneficial partnerships for the region. At its adoption in 2022, Forum Leaders said, “Securing the future of the Pacific cannot be left to chance.”3

With six years remaining for countries to meet the ambition of the global Agenda 2030 on sustainable development, priorities are mapped out in national plans, the Pacific Roadmap for Sustainable Development4 and the 2050 Strategy, the latter two guiding the work of the region’s technical agencies, collectively referred to as the Council of Regional Organisations of the Pacific (CROP), in support of national needs. The financing requirements to meet this ambition are considerable, as are Pacific countries’ responsibilities to both advance and monitor progress and the means of implementation. In 2024, five Pacific countries (Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu) will be delivering Voluntary National Reviews (VNRs) on their progress towards meeting Agenda 2030.5 The VNR process is a chance for countries to show reasonable development progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to highlight areas needing more support.

The interplay of Pacific countries’ domestic realpolitik with geopolitical rivalries has a direct bearing on localised sustainable development outcomes.6 For example, the prioritisation of bilateral relations over collective diplomacy has been observed in relation to post-pandemic economic recovery and security partnerships in some Pacific island countries in 2023.7 These politics of development are also played out on a regional scale through the CROP in terms of coordinated access to collective resources.8 Combined, the pressure for Pacific island countries to control the geopolitical narrative, retain diplomatic agency and manage domestic political agendas, signal a trend that will make or break some key shared targets for the Pacific in 2024.

This paper is in three parts. The first part horizon scans the 2024 global outlook and considers the implications of the following key themes for the Pacific islands region: economic prospects, the climate challenge, and geopolitical tempo. The second part examines how these themes intersect with the following priorities: deepening regional resolve, safeguarding Pacific democratic cultures, and leveraging Pacific agency. By taking this intersectional approach, in the third and final section we arrive at recommendations for Pacific policy makers and their development partners, that we consider to be significant to sustaining positive gains for Pacific development in 2024.

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Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2024: Unlocking Asia Pacific’s global leadership in sustainable development

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© Griffith University 2024. All rights reserved.

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Government and politics of Asia and the Pacific

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Newton Cain, T; Naupa, A, Leaving nothing to chance: Sustaining Pacific developments in 2024, Griffith Asia-Pacific Strategic Outlook 2024: Unlocking Asia Pacific’s global leadership in sustainable development, 2024, pp. 15-27

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