Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves

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Bianchi, Robert J
Fan, John Hua
Miffre, Joelle
Zhang, Tingxi
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2023
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Abstract

The Nelson-Siegel framework is employed to model the term structure of commodity futures prices. Exploiting the information embedded in the level, slope and curvature parameters, we develop novel investment strategies that assume short-term continuation of recent parallel, slope or butterfly movements of futures curves. Systematic strategies based on the change in the slope generate significant profits that are unrelated to previously documented risk factors and can survive reasonable transaction costs. Further analysis demonstrates that the profitability of the slope strategy increases with investor sentiment and is in part a compensation for the drawdowns incurred during economic slowdowns. The profitability can also be magnified through timing and persists under alternative specifications of the Nelson-Siegel model.

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Journal of Banking & Finance

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154

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© 2023. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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Banking, finance and investment

Applied mathematics

Social Sciences

Business, Finance

Economics

Business & Economics

Commodity futures

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Bianchi, RJ; Fan, JH; Miffre, J; Zhang, T, Exploiting the dynamics of commodity futures curves, Journal of Banking & Finance, 2023, 154, pp. 106965

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