Avoidable burden of stomach cancer and potential gains in healthy life years from gradual reductions in salt consumption in Vietnam, 2019 - 2030: a modelling study
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Cobiac, Linda J
Phung, Dung
Phung, Hai N
Veerman, J Lennert
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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Excess salt consumption is causally linked with stomach cancer, and salt intake among adults in Vietnam is about twice the recommended levels. The aim of this study was to quantify the future burden of stomach cancer that could be avoided from population-wide salt reduction in Vietnam. DESIGN: A dynamic simulation model was developed to quantify the impacts of achieving the 2018 National Vietnam Health Program (8g/day by 2025 and 7g/day by 2030) and the WHO (5g/day) salt reduction targets. Data on salt consumption were obtained from the Vietnam 2015 WHO STEPS survey. Health outcomes were estimated over 6-year (2019 - 2025), 11-year (2019 - 2030) and lifetime horizons. We conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. SETTING: Vietnam. PARTICIPANTS: All adults aged ≥ 25 years (61 million people, 48.4% men) alive in 2019. RESULTS: Achieving the 2025 and 2030 national salt targets could result in 3,400 and 7,200 fewer incident cases of stomach cancer respectively, and avert 1,900 and 4,800 stomach cancer deaths, respectively. Achieving the WHO target by 2030 could prevent 8,400 incident cases and 5,900 deaths from stomach cancer. Over the lifespan, this translated to 344,660 (8g/day), 411,060 (7g/day) and 493,633 (5g/day) HALYs gained respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A sizeable burden of stomach cancer could be avoided, with gains in healthy life years if national and WHO salt targets were attained. Our findings provide impetus for policy makers in Vietnam and Asia to intensify salt reduction strategies to combat stomach cancer and mitigate pressure on the health systems.
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Public Health Nutrition
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© 2022 The Authors. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.
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Subject
Oncology and carcinogenesis
Nutrition and dietetics
Biomedical and clinical sciences
Health sciences
Sodium
burden of disease
gastric cancer
incidence
mortality
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Aminde, LN; Cobiac, LJ; Phung, D; Phung, HN; Veerman, JL, Avoidable burden of stomach cancer and potential gains in healthy life years from gradual reductions in salt consumption in Vietnam, 2019 - 2030: a modelling study, Public Health Nutrition, 2022