Industry long-term return reversal

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Bornholt, Graham
Gharaibeh, Omar
Malin, Mirela
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2015
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Abstract

Given that extreme industry returns may herald long-term structural changes in the industries involved that may eventually lead to reversals in industry fortunes, we investigate the evidence for long-term return reversal in industry returns. Our study employs both pure contrarian strategies and late-stage contrarian strategies, and includes extra-long strategy formation periods (up to 132 months) to allow sufficient time for structural changes to begin. We find strong evidence of reversals in the long-term returns of industries. These reversals continue for many years (with valuation effects observed up to 10 years after commencement) and are difficult to reconcile with overreaction.

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Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money

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38

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Banking, finance and investment

Finance

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