Close-kin mark-recapture informs critically endangered terrestrial mammal status

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Lloyd-Jones, LR
Bravington, MV
Armstrong, KN
Lawrence, E
Feutry, P
Todd, CM
Dorrestein, A
Welbergen, JA
Martin, JM
Rose, K
Hall, J
Phalen, DN
Peters, I
Baylis, SM
Macgregor, NA
et al.
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2023
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Abstract

Reliable information on population size is fundamental to the management of threatened species. For wild species, mark-recapture methods are a cornerstone of abundance estimation. Here, we show the first application of the close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) method to a terrestrial species of high conservation value; the Christmas Island flying-fox (CIFF). The CIFF is the island's last remaining native terrestrial mammal and was recently listed as critically endangered. CKMR is a powerful tool for estimating the demographic parameters central to CIFF management and circumvents the complications arising from the species’ cryptic nature, mobility, and difficult-to-survey habitat. To this end, we used genetic data from 450 CIFFs captured between 2015 and 2019 to detect kin pairs. We implemented a novel CKMR model that estimates sex-specific abundance, trend, and mortality and accommodates observations from the kin-pair distribution of male reproductive skew and mate persistence. CKMR estimated CIFF total adult female abundance to be approximately 2050 individuals (95% CI (950, 4300)). We showed that on average only 23% of the adult male population contributed to annual reproduction and strong evidence for between-year mate fidelity, an observation not previously quantified for a Pteropus species in the wild. Critically, our population estimates provide the most robust understanding of the status of this critically endangered population, informing immediate and future conservation initiatives.

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Scientific Reports

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13

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© The Author(s) 2023. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Ecology

Community ecology (excl. invasive species ecology)

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Lloyd-Jones, LR; Bravington, MV; Armstrong, KN; Lawrence, E; Feutry, P; Todd, CM; Dorrestein, A; Welbergen, JA; Martin, JM; Rose, K; Hall, J; Phalen, DN; Peters, I; Baylis, SM; Macgregor, NA; Westcott, DA, Close-kin mark-recapture informs critically endangered terrestrial mammal status, Scientific Reports, 2023, 13, pp. 12512

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