The impact of COVID-19 on dwelling approvals in QLD: Preliminary macro-economic analysis using CCF-TCM hybrid approach

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Silva Vieira, Abel
Patorniti, Nicholas
Stewart, Rodney
Mohamed, Sherif
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2020
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Abstract

The Queensland Government’s annual Land Supply and Development Monitoring (LSDM) Report aims to understand and forecast changes in development activity and housing demand. The 2019 LSDM report provided a market factors section to discuss macro and micro-economic factors and their interrelations on short-medium term demand for housing. Since the release of the 2019 LSDM report, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic emerged, and continues to pose evolving risks to economic activity (Binder, 2020). In this context, there has since been a heightened need to understand and forecast impacts COVID-19 is having, and may have, on the demand for housing and development activity. Development activity helps support a healthy economy and adequate housing supply. Through the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, many initiatives have already been put in place to lessen the impact COVID-19 is having across many sectors. For example, reduced interest rates, introduction of cash flow boosts to small businesses, first home buyer increased grants, loan deferral, rental relief and job keeper payments. Current evidence-based information is needed to support decision making for targeted and effective interventions – particularly through the COVID-19 pandemic. This preliminary study presents data-driven methods, and methodologies, to better understand and forecast changes in development activity and housing demand. It sets out a measured approach to forecast development activity change from economic factors. The approaches help explain any past, current or future change by establishing links to key contributing economic factors.

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© 2020 Griffith university and and UACS Consulting. This is the author-manuscript version of this report. It is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the publisher’s website for further information.

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Urban and regional planning

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Silva Vieira, A; Patorniti, N; Stewart, R; Mohamed, S, The impact of COVID-19 on dwelling approvals in QLD: Preliminary macro-economic analysis using CCF-TCM hybrid approach, 2020

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