2014-01: Economic Growth and Poverty in Vietnam: Evidence from Elasticity Approach (Working paper)

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Author(s)
Le, Minh S.
Nguyen, Tom
Singh, Tarlok
Griffith University Author(s)
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Rohde, Nicholas

Naranpanawa, Athula

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2014
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28 pages

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Abstract

Vietnam transitioned into a market economy in 1986 from a centrally planned economy, and subsequently achieved remarkable outcomes in economic development in the 1990s. Economic growth peaked at 9.5 per cent during the export boom of the 1990s, and poverty was reduced by nearly a half, from 58 per cent in 1993 to 37 per cent in 1998. Therefore, economic growth has been the key to explaining remarkable economic development and reduction in poverty in Vietnam during the 1990s. This study analyses and evaluates the effect of growth on poverty in Vietnam by estimating growth elasticity of poverty using various methods. The main findings are that the growth elasticity of poverty based on the national accounts is estimated to be 0.95 for the 1990s and 0.83 for the 2000s. These estimates coincide fairly well with recent studies of the similar vein. However, the estimates based on the growth semi-elasticity of poverty are 0.55 and 0.24, which are rather similar to those using survey data, and much smaller than those using national accounts data. The decomposition of growth elasticity of poverty reveals that income growth has been pro-poor during the 1990s and the 2000s. The extended analysis, based on provincial panel data, further confirms the positive role of growth and trade in poverty reduction. Therefore, income growth contributes to explaining poverty reduction in Vietnam. However, growth and the effect of growth on poverty tended to decline in the last decade. The main implication is that sustained growth is required to underpin the poverty alleviation strategy.

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Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).

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Economics and Business Statistics

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O10 - Economic Development: General

O40 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General

I30 - Welfare and Poverty: General

Growth elasticity of poverty

economic growth

pro-poor growth

poverty

province

Vietnam.

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