Potential impact of a modest reduction in salt intake on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease burden and premature mortality: a modelling study

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Aminde, Leopold Ndemnge
Cobiac, Linda J
Veerman, J Lennert
Griffith University Author(s)
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2019
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Abstract

Objective: To assess the potential impact of reduction in salt intake on the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and premature mortality in Cameroon. Methods: Using a multicohort proportional multistate life table model with Markov process, we modelled the impact of WHO's recommended 30% relative reduction in population-wide sodium intake on the CVD burden for Cameroonian adults alive in 2016. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted and used to quantify uncertainty. Results: Over the lifetime, incidence is predicted to decrease by 5.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 4.6 to 5.7) for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), 6.6% (95% UI 5.9 to 7.4) for haemorrhagic strokes, 4.8% (95% UI 4.2 to 5.4) for ischaemic strokes and 12.9% (95% UI 12.4 to 13.5) for hypertensive heart disease (HHD). Mortality over the lifetime is projected to reduce by 5.1% (95% UI 4.5 to 5.6) for IHD, by 6.9% (95% UI 6.1 to 7.7) for haemorrhagic stroke, by 4.5% (95% UI 4.0 to 5.1) for ischaemic stroke and by 13.3% (95% UI 12.9 to 13.7) for HHD. About 776 400 (95% UI 712 600 to 841 200) health-adjusted life years could be gained, and life expectancy might increase by 0.23 years and 0.20 years for men and women, respectively. A projected 16.8% change (reduction) between 2016 and 2030 in probability of premature mortality due to CVD would occur if population salt reduction recommended by WHO is attained. Conclusion: Achieving the 30% reduction in sodium intake recommended by WHO could considerably decrease the burden of CVD. Targeting blood pressure via decreasing population salt intake could translate in significant reductions in premature CVD mortality in Cameroon by 2030.

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Open Heart

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6

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1

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© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

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Cardiovascular medicine and haematology

Clinical sciences

Science & Technology

Life Sciences & Biomedicine

Cardiac & Cardiovascular Systems

Cardiovascular System & Cardiology

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

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Aminde, LN; Cobiac, LJ; Veerman, JL, Potential impact of a modest reduction in salt intake on blood pressure, cardiovascular disease burden and premature mortality: a modelling study, Open Heart, 2019, 6 (1), pp. e000943:1-e000943:10

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